Category: Technology

Elon Musk’s 5 Steps to Optimize Product Development

There is a concept in rocketry called the tyranny of the rocket equation. NASA astronaut Don Pettit uses it to describe a ruthless constraint: every kilogram of unnecessary mass you add to a rocket demands exponentially more propellant to carry it. The tyranny isn’t a design failure. It’s physics. And the lesson isn’t really about rockets — it’s about what happens when teams don’t deeply understand the constraints they’re operating inside before they start building.

That understanding is what separates teams that iterate toward the right answer from teams that get faster and faster at building the wrong thing.

Elon Musk has two mental models worth understanding together. The first is first principles thinking — the foundation. The second is a 5-step engineering process he calls “the algorithm.” Neither works without the other.

First, Understand Your Constraints

Before any of the process matters, a team has to know what it’s actually trying to accomplish and what it’s up against. First principles thinking starts there.

Most teams reason by analogy. We look at what the previous version of the product did, what competitors are shipping, what worked last quarter, and we iterate from there. The problem isn’t the iteration — it’s that the starting point was never examined. We inherit constraints we never questioned and optimize inside boundaries we never chose.

Musk’s framing is to boil a problem down to its most fundamental truths and reason up from there. When he wanted to build rockets, he found they cost $65 million. Rather than accept that as a constraint, he asked what a rocket is actually made of and what those materials cost. The gap between raw material cost and finished market price wasn’t physics — it was accumulated assumption. That gap became SpaceX.

For product teams, the equivalent question is: what are the fundamental measures of success for this product, and what is the real relationship between them? Not the proxy metrics. Not the dashboard your team inherited. The actual truths underneath. What does the user need to accomplish? What does success look like at the level of physics — the irreducible thing you are trying to do?

If a team can’t answer that clearly, no amount of process will save them. They’ll just optimize inside the wrong constraints.

The Algorithm

Once you understand your constraints and your fundamental measures, the algorithm is how you work toward them. The steps have to happen in order — that’s the whole point.

Step 1: Make the requirements less dumb.

Every requirement is wrong. It doesn’t matter who gave it to you — in fact the smarter the person, the more dangerous their requirement, because you’re less likely to push back. Musk’s rule: every requirement must be owned by a name, not a department. You can ask a person why something exists. You cannot ask a department.

Product teams accumulate requirements the same way rockets accumulate mass — incrementally, with good intentions, over time. The PRD inherits from the last PRD. Nobody re-examines the premise. The discipline of step 1 is to trace every requirement back to a person and ask them directly: is this still true?

Step 2: Delete the part or process.

The organizational default is to add. Add a step, add a check, add a field, add a ceremony. We add things “just in case,” and once something exists it tends to stay. Musk’s rule of thumb: if you’re not adding back at least 10% of what you deleted, you didn’t delete enough. The best part is no part.

This is where teams find the room to actually move. Every unnecessary step in a workflow, every feature nobody uses, every approval that exists because of a requirement nobody owns — that’s mass you’re carrying on every subsequent release. Delete aggressively, then see what you actually needed.

Step 3: Simplify and optimize.

This is the step most teams go to first. It’s also the most common mistake. Musk is direct: the most common error of a smart engineer is to optimize something that should not exist. Steps 1 and 2 exist precisely to prevent you from doing elegant, rigorous work on the wrong problem.

This is where the relationship between your fundamental measures matters. If you haven’t defined what good actually looks like — the real measure, not the proxy — you’ll optimize toward the wrong thing with great precision.

Step 4: Accelerate cycle time.

Now that you’re working on the right thing, shorten the feedback loop. Get to users sooner. Iterate faster. But Musk is explicit about the sequence: not before step 3. His line is worth keeping: if you’re digging your own grave, don’t dig it faster. Velocity without prior ruthless deletion just ships the wrong thing more efficiently.

Faster cycles only compound your learning if you’re learning the right things. Which brings us to the most underappreciated part of this framework.

Step 5: Automate.

Last. Musk admits he made this mistake himself on the Model 3 — he went backwards through all five steps, automating before deleting. Automation is a multiplier. If what you’re multiplying is still full of unexamined requirements and undeleted steps, you’ve automated a problem. Make sure it’s the right thing first.

From Good to Better to Best

The real value of this framework isn’t efficiency — it’s the shape of the learning it produces.

Most product teams think about progress as shipping features. The better mental model is moving from a good solution to a better solution to the best solution — and understanding clearly where you are in that progression at any given moment.

Step 1 and step 2 force you to confront what good actually means before you commit resources. Step 3 builds the good solution — stripped of everything that shouldn’t be there, optimized for what matters. Step 4 accelerates how fast you can learn whether your good solution is actually good, and what better looks like. Step 5 locks in what’s working so the team can direct its attention to the next problem.

This is what Pettit’s rocket equation is really pointing at. Every unnecessary thing you carry increases the cost of getting to the next stage — exponentially. The teams that get from good to better to best fastest are the ones who are most ruthless about what they’re carrying and most clear about where they’re trying to go.

The framework is simple. The discipline to apply it — especially when it means telling a smart person their requirement is wrong, or deleting something that took two sprints to build — is rare.

That’s the hard part. The framework is the easy part.

Data Trumps Everything

When Apple released its mapping application for iOS it confirmed what many big data evangalists had been preaching, Data Trumps Everything.(eventually)

Best design, worthless without data.

Sophisticated Software, worthless without data.

While Apple won the first round in the mobile platform wars using world class design and excellent user experience, they have shown the gap in their strategy, their Achilles heal. The rapidly  approaching next generations of personal computing will be built on a foundation Hardware and software differentiated with DATA.

This reality was made even more visible at the Gartner  Application Architecture, Development & Integration Summit, during a Keynote interview of Michael Abbott,  a partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. Mr. Abbott expressed concern about the walled gardens of data (read Google, twitter, Facebook)  becoming significant barriers to competition and innovation.

Michael Abbot is exactly right. The next innovations, as we move to a cognitive economy, will require access to data, massive amounts of data. Scale and access will become huge advantages and barriers. Start-up organizations will be hard pressed to innovate without having access to these sources of data.  While some innovative companies will be able to create ways to collect and build their own reservoirs of data, others will have to partner to gain access.  But the bottom line is excellent hardware and software are table stakes in the cognitive economy, but data will be the coin of the realm.

In the case of Apple Maps, it is hard to believe Apple would ever catch Google. Google has long held an advantage with search and it’s velocity of innovation and improvement are difficult to match. Apple would have to exceed the rate at which Google is innovating and collecting data. With the ever increasing population of google powered devices it doesn’t look good for Apple.

Steve Yegge on Presenting to Jeff Bezos

Steve Yegge over in his Google+ feed has a post I just found about his experience presenting to Jeff Bezos. His description of the experience and his approach was great. The entire post is interesting but my favorite part is the second to last paragraph.

You have to understand: most people were scared around Bezos because they were waaaay too worried about trying to keep their jobs. People in high-level positions sometimes have a little too much personal self-esteem invested in their success. Can you imagine how annoying it must be for him to be around timid people all day long? But me — well, I thought I was going to get fired every single day. So fuck timid. Might as well aim high and go out in a ball of flame.

We all have seen the timid presentation, that’s why I like the last lines so very much (my emphasis added).  Read the whole post you will enjoy it.

The Evolution of Advertising in 5 Minutes

Kevin Rose interviews Chris Sacca of lower case capital and Chris gives a great interview. I recommend you watch the whole thing. But, to hear the best explanation of how advertising has evolved and why services like Twitter, Foursquare and Square are so valuable. The explanation starts at 34 Min.

If you like this interview you might also like Chris Sacca on This Week in Start-ups

Enjoy!

 

Google Gets the future Cognitive Economy

I have long explained to people the value of the data corporations collect. I have seen first hand the value of large pools of correlated, linked, behavior generated data and as Tim O’Reilly points out in his post so does Google.

My favorite definition of Cognitive** is:

Having a basis in or reducible to empirical factual knowledge.

The key part of the definition as it relates to Tim’s post and Google is “Having a Basis in or reducible to” . I also like “empirical”. Cognition requires data and lots of it. Algorithms are secondary to the data for without the data there is nothing.

Google is just a stalking horse for the coming cognitive economy, there are many other players less public and less chic that are working to exploit the coming opportunities.

**”cognitive.” The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition. Houghton Mifflin Company, 2004. Answers.com 18 Dec. 2007. http://www.answers.com/topic/cognitive

My twitter Wishlist

Here are two Twitter bots I would love to see:

  • Google search history bot posts at random my search queries every hour or so.
  • FedEx tracking bot send it the tracking number and it twitters the location of your package.

Social Media and the ERP

Over at gapingvoid Hugh MacLeod posts about a set of questions he received from a friend about social media. I found all the questions and responses interesting. The one one question and response that stood out was #10:

10. Additional Comments?

One more thought, which pertains directly to your client. I firmly believe that the line that separates social media and ERP is going to start getting VERY blurry, and really soon. I can see a not-to-distant future where even the larger ERP solutions are built around social software, not the other way around. And I can see that day arriving in under five years. We live in interesting times.

Sorry, Hugh but I think your are a bit off on this one. Sure ERP vendors will start offering social software as part of their solutions in the next 5 years. But think about from the view point of the folks in the market for ERP solutions. That group of people have driven large ERP vendors to provide guarantees that versions of their ERP solutions will be viable for at least 5 years. The market requires ERP vendors provide these guarantees due to significant costs of major upgrades. So, the adoption cycle for existing customers will drive the adoption of radically different ERP solutions beyond your 5 year horizon. Now I agree that the principles and techniques that have driven the adoption of social software in the consumer market will be adopted over time in enterprises of all sizes.

The reality is that enterprises today are just now getting platforms that enable them to realize visions of Michael Hammer and the like. ERP solutions are complex animals that could never be built around social software. What I believe is that social software coupled with process re-engineering will create huge efficiencies and value for enterprises. All this is dependent on a well abstracted ERP platform, in simple terms it will be all about services (API). Social software has a long way to go before dealing with things like GAAP, complex logistics, Financial reporting, transactional integrity, inventory management, production planning, global regulation, process execution, the list goes on and on. I believe social software has the power to make all these things more efficient and effective.

ERP platforms will remain the core of enterprises for years to come. The smart enterprises and vendors will have ERPs with comprehensive and integrated social software. ERPs will become like utility services doing very complex and important things, social software will create information liquidity, efficiency and transparency within and across business processes.